Edge Finder
Where your record has been strongest and weakest. Descriptive statistics about the past with their uncertainty attached, not forecasts.
Strongest signals
47 buckets tested · Bonferroni α = 0.0011- Setup / strategy tag: Opening Range Breakout produced positive expectancy of +$234 per trade across 50 trades (95% CI +$134 to +$335), win rate 70%, profit factor 4.443.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Time of day (30 min): 09:30–10:00 produced positive expectancy of +$229 per trade across 48 trades (95% CI +$129 to +$329), win rate 71%, profit factor 4.362.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Volatility regime: Low volatility produced negative expectancy of −$166 per trade across 65 trades (95% CI −$315 to −$17), win rate 37%, profit factor 0.416.Does not survive correction for the 47 buckets tested; could be a multiple-comparisons artefact.
- Planned risk/reward: R:R 1–2 produced negative expectancy of −$125 per trade across 112 trades (95% CI −$266 to +$16), win rate 36%, profit factor 0.624.Confidence interval includes zero; not distinguishable from noise.
Explore
Bars: mean net P&L per trade. Whiskers: 95% confidence interval. Faded bars have fewer than 30 trades.
| Bucket | Trades | Win rate (95% CI) | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy (95% CI) | Profit factor | Max DD | Edge score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 5 min | 16 | 19% (7%–43%) | +$673 | −$370 | −$174 (-491 to 143) | 0.42 | −$2,784 | 37 | noise-compatiblen = 16: small sample; expect wide error bars. |
| 5–15 min | 56 | 46% (34%–59%) | +$536 | −$417 | +$25 (-156 to 206) | 1.113 | −$4,856 | 55 | noise-compatible |
| 15–60 min | 122 | 48% (39%–56%) | +$626 | −$594 | −$14 (-167 to 138) | 0.955 | −$13,466 | 46 | noise-compatible |
Methodology and limits
Edge Score (0–100, 50 = no evidence either way) = 50 + 50 · tanh(t · w / 2), where t is expectancy divided by its standard error and w = n / (n + 20) shrinks small samples toward 50. It ranks how consistently a bucket made money in the past. It is not a probability of future profit.
Win-rate intervals are Wilson score intervals. Expectancy intervals use Student's t and assume trades are independent, which streaky behaviour violates; real uncertainty is wider.
Multiple comparisons. Slicing 47 ways guarantees some buckets look good by chance. “Holds after correction” means the bucket survives a Bonferroni adjustment across all of them.
Selection bias: setup tags added after the fact, or only journaling memorable trades, inflate results. Past regimes may not recur. Treat any edge here as a hypothesis to test forward on small size.