Edge Finder
Where your record has been strongest and weakest. Descriptive statistics about the past with their uncertainty attached, not forecasts.
Strongest signals
47 buckets tested · Bonferroni α = 0.0011- Setup / strategy tag: Opening Range Breakout produced positive expectancy of +$234 per trade across 50 trades (95% CI +$134 to +$335), win rate 70%, profit factor 4.443.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Time of day (30 min): 09:30–10:00 produced positive expectancy of +$229 per trade across 48 trades (95% CI +$129 to +$329), win rate 71%, profit factor 4.362.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Volatility regime: Low volatility produced negative expectancy of −$166 per trade across 65 trades (95% CI −$315 to −$17), win rate 37%, profit factor 0.416.Does not survive correction for the 47 buckets tested; could be a multiple-comparisons artefact.
- Planned risk/reward: R:R 1–2 produced negative expectancy of −$125 per trade across 112 trades (95% CI −$266 to +$16), win rate 36%, profit factor 0.624.Confidence interval includes zero; not distinguishable from noise.
Explore
Bars: mean net P&L per trade. Whiskers: 95% confidence interval. Faded bars have fewer than 30 trades.
| Bucket | Trades | Win rate (95% CI) | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy (95% CI) | Profit factor | Max DD | Edge score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Range Breakout | 50 | 70% (56%–81%) | +$432 | −$227 | +$234 (134 to 335) | 4.443 | −$547 | 97 | holds after correction |
| Momentum Chase | 29 | 45% (28%–62%) | +$1,095 | −$1,131 | −$133 (-642 to 375) | 0.786 | −$8,341 | 42 | noise-compatiblen = 29: small sample; expect wide error bars. |
| Late-Day Fade | 16 | 25% (10%–49%) | +$174 | −$155 | −$73 (-156 to 10) | 0.373 | −$1,189 | 30 | noise-compatiblen = 16: small sample; expect wide error bars. |
| Mean Reversion Fade | 99 | 35% (27%–45%) | +$634 | −$500 | −$99 (-252 to 54) | 0.694 | −$17,858 | 26 | noise-compatible |
Methodology and limits
Edge Score (0–100, 50 = no evidence either way) = 50 + 50 · tanh(t · w / 2), where t is expectancy divided by its standard error and w = n / (n + 20) shrinks small samples toward 50. It ranks how consistently a bucket made money in the past. It is not a probability of future profit.
Win-rate intervals are Wilson score intervals. Expectancy intervals use Student's t and assume trades are independent, which streaky behaviour violates; real uncertainty is wider.
Multiple comparisons. Slicing 47 ways guarantees some buckets look good by chance. “Holds after correction” means the bucket survives a Bonferroni adjustment across all of them.
Selection bias: setup tags added after the fact, or only journaling memorable trades, inflate results. Past regimes may not recur. Treat any edge here as a hypothesis to test forward on small size.