Edge Finder
Where your record has been strongest and weakest. Descriptive statistics about the past with their uncertainty attached, not forecasts.
Strongest signals
47 buckets tested · Bonferroni α = 0.0011- Setup / strategy tag: Opening Range Breakout produced positive expectancy of +$234 per trade across 50 trades (95% CI +$134 to +$335), win rate 70%, profit factor 4.443.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Time of day (30 min): 09:30–10:00 produced positive expectancy of +$229 per trade across 48 trades (95% CI +$129 to +$329), win rate 71%, profit factor 4.362.Holds up after correcting for the 47 buckets tested.
- Volatility regime: Low volatility produced negative expectancy of −$166 per trade across 65 trades (95% CI −$315 to −$17), win rate 37%, profit factor 0.416.Does not survive correction for the 47 buckets tested; could be a multiple-comparisons artefact.
- Planned risk/reward: R:R 1–2 produced negative expectancy of −$125 per trade across 112 trades (95% CI −$266 to +$16), win rate 36%, profit factor 0.624.Confidence interval includes zero; not distinguishable from noise.
Explore
Bars: mean net P&L per trade. Whiskers: 95% confidence interval. Faded bars have fewer than 30 trades.
| Bucket | Trades | Win rate (95% CI) | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy (95% CI) | Profit factor | Max DD | Edge score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smallest 25% | 49 | 49% (36%–63%) | +$312 | −$314 | −$7 (-119 to 104) | 0.954 | −$4,204 | 48 | noise-compatible |
| 25–50% | 49 | 35% (23%–49%) | +$387 | −$212 | −$4 (-94 to 86) | 0.969 | −$2,483 | 48 | noise-compatible |
| 50–75% | 48 | 54% (40%–67%) | +$524 | −$310 | +$142 (-10 to 293) | 1.996 | −$2,181 | 79 | noise-compatible |
| Largest 25% | 48 | 42% (29%–56%) | +$1,228 | −$1,210 | −$194 (-598 to 210) | 0.725 | −$16,923 | 34 | noise-compatible |
Methodology and limits
Edge Score (0–100, 50 = no evidence either way) = 50 + 50 · tanh(t · w / 2), where t is expectancy divided by its standard error and w = n / (n + 20) shrinks small samples toward 50. It ranks how consistently a bucket made money in the past. It is not a probability of future profit.
Win-rate intervals are Wilson score intervals. Expectancy intervals use Student's t and assume trades are independent, which streaky behaviour violates; real uncertainty is wider.
Multiple comparisons. Slicing 47 ways guarantees some buckets look good by chance. “Holds after correction” means the bucket survives a Bonferroni adjustment across all of them.
Selection bias: setup tags added after the fact, or only journaling memorable trades, inflate results. Past regimes may not recur. Treat any edge here as a hypothesis to test forward on small size.